CNN認證台灣交通「惡名昭彰」不利觀光 - 汽車

By Andy
at 2022-12-09T11:37
at 2022-12-09T11:37
Table of Contents
※ 引述《longtimens (阿捲)》之銘言:
: https://i.imgur.com/0U1BuLb.jpg
: 有人貼了這張圖,百分百佐證機車才是市區最大的亂源......
: 闖紅燈 不按規定方向行駛 爭道 酒駕
: 市區最容易出事的幾個條件基本都是機車勝出
: 還有一個重點是,相比汽車,機車取得太容易,八成無照抓道的都是機車,一堆無照在路上
: 竄,搞不好標誌都不是很懂,廢話當然出一堆事,唉......
你的算法有個問題是沒有考慮到基數的差別
假設今天有100個律師,其中10人犯案
然後有10個醫師,有9個人犯案
你會說因為10>9,所以律師比起醫生更會犯案嗎?
(不想引起爭議所以特別挑兩個社會上都比較高地位,不用擔心被汙名化的職業舉例)
同樣的,這裡面的比例實際上要乘上汽機車比例
https://imgur.com/q7GrOfU
舉例來說,不依規定轉彎的比例應該算:
57.32/0.367:42.68/0.633 = 156:67~=7:3
也就是以每增加同樣數量的汽機車,汽車不依規定轉彎的比例是機車的兩倍多
同理,你可以發現闖紅燈的比例汽機車大約是1:1
爭道行駛則是機車比汽車略多 大約是9(汽車):11(機車)
至於酒駕,也是機車比汽車略多,但多的有限,大約是48(汽車):52(機車)
也就是說實際上除了不依規定轉彎因為真的太危險導致汽車駕駛人更敢違規以外
其實汽機車違規的比例都差不多
翻譯成白話文就是:“會違規的人比例都差不多,不分車種”
甚至如果你認為機車取得更容易更多無照的白癡,結果違規比例卻跟汽車差不多的話
那大概證明汽車駕駛的有照違規率比機車還更高
--
: https://i.imgur.com/0U1BuLb.jpg

: 闖紅燈 不按規定方向行駛 爭道 酒駕
: 市區最容易出事的幾個條件基本都是機車勝出
: 還有一個重點是,相比汽車,機車取得太容易,八成無照抓道的都是機車,一堆無照在路上
: 竄,搞不好標誌都不是很懂,廢話當然出一堆事,唉......
你的算法有個問題是沒有考慮到基數的差別
假設今天有100個律師,其中10人犯案
然後有10個醫師,有9個人犯案
你會說因為10>9,所以律師比起醫生更會犯案嗎?
(不想引起爭議所以特別挑兩個社會上都比較高地位,不用擔心被汙名化的職業舉例)
同樣的,這裡面的比例實際上要乘上汽機車比例
https://imgur.com/q7GrOfU
舉例來說,不依規定轉彎的比例應該算:
57.32/0.367:42.68/0.633 = 156:67~=7:3
也就是以每增加同樣數量的汽機車,汽車不依規定轉彎的比例是機車的兩倍多
同理,你可以發現闖紅燈的比例汽機車大約是1:1
爭道行駛則是機車比汽車略多 大約是9(汽車):11(機車)
至於酒駕,也是機車比汽車略多,但多的有限,大約是48(汽車):52(機車)
也就是說實際上除了不依規定轉彎因為真的太危險導致汽車駕駛人更敢違規以外
其實汽機車違規的比例都差不多
翻譯成白話文就是:“會違規的人比例都差不多,不分車種”
甚至如果你認為機車取得更容易更多無照的白癡,結果違規比例卻跟汽車差不多的話
那大概證明汽車駕駛的有照違規率比機車還更高
--
Tags:
汽車
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