IIHS: 無人駕駛可能難以消除大多數事故 - 汽車

https://bit.ly/2zbMu8c

這篇文章其實已經有幾家媒體寫成新聞，但是不少媒體卻很故意的將標題下成
很聳動，像是"自動駕駛只能阻止三分之一的車禍"之類，這完全誤解了文章內
容，很容易讓人對無人駕駛有錯誤的認知。所以轉發原文過來，加上個人簡略
翻譯，若有錯誤麻煩告知指正，謝謝。


Self-driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes
June 4, 2020

Driver mistakes play a role in virtually all crashes. That’s why automation
has been held up as a potential game changer for safety. But autonomous
vehicles might prevent only around a third of all crashes if automated
systems drive too much like people, according to a new study from the
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.

目前幾乎所有的交通事故或多或少都有駕駛的疏忽在內，這就是為什麼自動化
對於交通安全來說被認為是game changer。但是根據IIHS 的一項新研究顯示，
如果(無人)駕駛系統的駕駛方式太像人類駕駛，那麼無人駕駛車可能只能防止
大約三分之一的事故。

“It’s likely that fully self-driving cars will eventually identify hazards
better than people, but we found that this alone would not prevent the bulk
of crashes,” says Jessica Cicchino, IIHS vice president for research and a
coauthor of the study.

無人駕駛車最終可能可以比人類更好地識別危險，但我們發現，僅憑這一點並
不能防止大多數的事故 - IIHS 研究副總裁 Jessica Cicchino 這樣說。

Conventional thinking has it that self-driving vehicles could one day make
crashes a thing of the past. The reality is not that simple. According to a
national survey of police-reported crashes, driver error is the final failure
in the chain of events leading to more than 9 out of 10 crashes.

傳統思維認為，無人駕駛車有朝一日可以讓車禍成為過去，但現實狀況並非如
此簡單。根據一項全國性調查，十起事故中有九起駕駛失誤是一連串造成事故
的事件中的最後一項錯誤。

But the Institute’s analysis suggests that only about a third of those
crashes were the result of mistakes that automated vehicles would be expected
to avoid simply because they have more accurate perception than human drivers
and aren’t vulnerable to incapacitation. To avoid the other two-thirds, they
would need to be specifically programmed to prioritize safety over speed and
convenience.

但是該研究表明，在這些事故中大約只有三分之一的事故是由錯誤造成的，無
人駕駛車輛有望可避免這些錯誤，這僅僅是因為他們比人類駕駛有更準確的感
知，並且不容易失效。為了避免另外三分之二的事故，無人駕駛車必須經過專
門的設計，將安全優先於速度與便利性上。

“Building self-driving cars that drive as well as people do is a big
challenge in itself,” says IIHS Research Scientist Alexandra Mueller, lead
author of the study. “But they’d actually need to be better than that to
deliver on the promises we’ve all heard.”

IIHS 科學家Alexandra Mueller 說，製造出開車和人類一樣好的無人駕駛車本
身就是一項很大的挑戰，但他們實際上必須要比這更好，才能實現我們以前聽
過的承諾。

To estimate how many crashes might continue to occur if self-driving cars are
designed to make the same decisions about risk that humans do, IIHS
researchers examined more than 5,000 police-reported crashes from the
National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey. Collected by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration, this sample is representative of
crashes across the U.S. in which at least one vehicle was towed away, and
emergency medical services were called to the scene.

IIHS 研究人員檢查了全美至少有一輛車被拖走、有緊急醫療到場的5000多則事
故。

The IIHS team reviewed the case files and separated the driver-related
factors that contributed to the crashes into five categories:

然後將與駕駛有關的車禍因素分成五類：

“Sensing and perceiving” errors included things like driver distraction,
impeded visibility and failing to recognize hazards before it was too late.

"感覺和感知錯誤"

“Predicting” errors occurred when drivers misjudged a gap in traffic,
incorrectly estimated how fast another vehicle was going or made an incorrect
assumption about what another road user was going to do.

"預測錯誤"

“Planning and deciding” errors included driving too fast or too slow for
the road conditions, driving aggressively or leaving too little following
distance from the vehicle ahead.

"計劃和決定錯誤"

“Execution and performance” errors included inadequate or incorrect evasive
maneuvers, overcompensation and other mistakes in controlling the vehicle.

"執行與表現錯誤"

“Incapacitation” involved impairment due to alcohol or drug use, medical
problems or falling asleep at the wheel.
The researchers also determined that some crashes were unavoidable, such as
those caused by a vehicle failure like a blowout or broken axle.

"無行為能力"

For the study, the researchers imagined a future in which all the vehicles on
the road are self-driving. They assumed these future vehicles would prevent
those crashes that were caused exclusively by perception errors or involved
an incapacitated driver. That’s because cameras and sensors of fully
autonomous vehicles could be expected to monitor the roadway and identify
potential hazards better than a human driver and be incapable of distraction
or incapacitation.

在這項研究之中，研究人員想像了一個路上車輛全部都是無人駕駛車的未來。
他們假設這些車輛可以完全防止由感知錯誤所造成的車禍，或者是無行為能力
駕駛所引發的車禍。

Crashes due to only sensing and perceiving errors accounted for 24 percent of
the total, and incapacitation accounted for 10 percent. Those crashes might
be avoided if all vehicles on the road were self-driving — though it would
require sensors that worked perfectly and systems that never malfunctioned.
The remaining two-thirds might still occur unless autonomous vehicles are
also specifically programmed to avoid other types of predicting,
decision-making and performance errors.

僅因感知錯誤而造成的車禍佔24%，而無行為能力駕駛因素而造成的車禍有10%，
如果路上都是無人駕駛車，只要感測器完美的工作，系統不失靈，這些車禍就
可以避免。而剩下的三分之二車禍仍有可能發生，除非無人駕駛車也被專門設
計過，以避免其他類型例如預測、決定、和表現上的失誤。

Consider the crash of an Uber test vehicle that killed a pedestrian in Tempe,
Arizona, in March 2018. Its automated driving system initially struggled to
correctly identify 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg on the side of the road. But
once it did, it still was not able to predict that she would cross in front
of the vehicle, and it failed to execute the correct evasive maneuver to
avoid striking her when she did so.

考慮到2018年3月Uber 測試車撞死一名行人的事故，其無人駕駛系統最初難以
識別路旁的49歲Elaine Herzberg 女士，但是一但識別到了，它仍然無法預測
她會越過車輛前方，而且車輛也未能正確執行正確的規避動作來避免她越過前
方時撞到她。

Planning and deciding errors, such as speeding and illegal maneuvers, were
contributing factors in about 40 percent of crashes in the study sample. The
fact that deliberate decisions made by drivers can lead to crashes indicates
that rider preferences might sometimes conflict with the safety priorities of
autonomous vehicles. For self-driving vehicles to live up to their promise of
eliminating most crashes, they will have to be designed to focus on safety
rather than rider preference when those two are at odds.

超速、非法操作等規劃或決策錯誤而導致的交通事故佔研究樣本中的40%。駕駛
有意的決定會導致車禍的事實表明，駕駛的偏好有時可能會與無人駕駛車的安
全優先設置互相衝突。無人駕駛車想要實現其消除絕大多數事故的承諾，就必
須在這兩者發生衝突時將設計重點擺在安全上，而不是駕駛偏好上。

Self-driving vehicles will need not only to obey traffic laws but also to
adapt to road conditions and implement driving strategies that account for
uncertainty about what other road users will do, such as driving more slowly
than a human driver would in areas with high pedestrian traffic or in
low-visibility conditions.

“Our analysis shows that it will be crucial for designers to prioritize
safety over rider preferences if autonomous vehicles are to live up to their
promise to be safer than human drivers,” Mueller says.

我們的分析表明，對於無人駕駛汽車要實現其比人類駕駛更安全的承諾，將安
全性置於駕駛偏好之上至關重要。


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