「油電平價」何時能實現?最新研究報告 - 價格

By Dinah
at 2020-09-05T12:09
at 2020-09-05T12:09
Table of Contents
原文連結:https://www.ddcar.com.tw/article/11470
原文內容:高昂的電池成本一直是電動車無法壓低價格的主因之一,因此降低電池成本
是車廠、供應商共同的努力目標。但電池成本降低之後電動車就能變得比燃油更便宜嗎
?
最新的研究報告指出,這是有可能的:再等十年。
https://i.imgur.com/QTH92dX.jpg
先前中國電池大廠寧德時代的董事長預測,隨著相關零部件的價格下降,電動車的價格
預計 2025 年就可和燃油車齊平,進入「油電平價」時代。
但諮詢公司Oliver Wyman 再為金融時報 (Financial Times)所進行的研究報告卻有不
同看法,認為這十年內電動車都還是會比燃油車更貴。
根據 Oliver Wyman 報告所分析,到了 2030 年,緊湊型電動車 (Compactelectric c
ar) 總製造成本將會下降 20%,車價屆時會下降到 16,000 歐元(約台幣 55.5 萬元)
,但仍然會比同類型的汽油或柴油車的車價要貴上9%。但報告也提醒,隨著固態電池
的技術突破,以及大型電池工廠後續將帶來的規模經濟效益,都將會讓電動車的成本進
一步下降,最終達成「油電平價」的目標。
Oliver Wyman 預測,「油電平價」的實現日期是在2030 年以後,這與寧德時代董事長
的預測相比至少還要再多等5 年。
心得/說明:大陸早已經有便宜又堪用的平價電動車,只是安全性的疑慮沒有辦法說服大
家,只要有電動車火燒車還會持續被放大的一天,電動車就離普及還很遠,絕對不只是
價格問題。國際車廠還躊躇不前,電池技術說實話真的有很多瓶頸,十年我覺得都是樂
觀的數字,電動車是整個運輸交通型態的大轉型,20年後再看看有沒有50%吧!(30字以
上)
*轉錄新聞/情報,必須附上原文及網址連結及心得或意見30字(不含標點符號)*
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