機車上國道真正危險的是 - 汽車
By Erin
at 2019-01-17T23:37
at 2019-01-17T23:37
Table of Contents
※ 引述《piglauhk (肥胖宅 ( ̄﹁ ̄))》之銘言:
: 現在很多正反理由 比較客觀的理卻不多 目前看到最有說服力的理由如下。
: 重機危險性高,連帶影響用路人整體風險 上國道一出意外是非死即重傷 見國三甲百萬公
: 里傷亡率數據,重機2.31,小形車是0.14,可予支持。
: 另外 重機違規率亦遠高於小型車。
: https://i.imgur.com/zqvyqEk.jpg
: 意外率一提高 全體用路人保費必調漲 故此不應開放大型重機上國道
國三甲 2 events/ 605154 KM
台64 12 events/ 8712715 KM
首先檢定這兩個數據是否統計上異質
如果按公里計算是否發生事件
用Fisher exact test計算,p=0.23,統計上無顯著差異
把國三甲與台64的event跟公里數pooling起來
得到 14 events/ 9317869 KM = 1.50 events/百萬公里
按泊松分佈計算,觀測到14個events,95% CI是 7.65~23.49 events
event rate的95% CI是 0.82~2.52 events/百萬公里
類似的,可以得到小型車的event rate 95% CI為0.10~0.17 events/百萬公里
=> 重機與小型車的event rate,在統計上有顯著差異。 (p<0.00001)
-----------------------------------------------------------
選用不同的統計方法與假設,可能會得到稍微不同的95% CI 與 p值
比如不使用泊松分佈而使用二項分佈或常態分佈
採用T test或採用Pearson's chi-squared test
或者不按公里計算event rate而按車次計算event rate
但我猜不管採用何種approach
都很難改變統計上有顯著差異的結論
--
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser, And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."
now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin' Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
--
: 現在很多正反理由 比較客觀的理卻不多 目前看到最有說服力的理由如下。
: 重機危險性高,連帶影響用路人整體風險 上國道一出意外是非死即重傷 見國三甲百萬公
: 里傷亡率數據,重機2.31,小形車是0.14,可予支持。
: 另外 重機違規率亦遠高於小型車。
: https://i.imgur.com/zqvyqEk.jpg
: 意外率一提高 全體用路人保費必調漲 故此不應開放大型重機上國道
國三甲 2 events/ 605154 KM
台64 12 events/ 8712715 KM
首先檢定這兩個數據是否統計上異質
如果按公里計算是否發生事件
用Fisher exact test計算,p=0.23,統計上無顯著差異
把國三甲與台64的event跟公里數pooling起來
得到 14 events/ 9317869 KM = 1.50 events/百萬公里
按泊松分佈計算,觀測到14個events,95% CI是 7.65~23.49 events
event rate的95% CI是 0.82~2.52 events/百萬公里
類似的,可以得到小型車的event rate 95% CI為0.10~0.17 events/百萬公里
=> 重機與小型車的event rate,在統計上有顯著差異。 (p<0.00001)
-----------------------------------------------------------
選用不同的統計方法與假設,可能會得到稍微不同的95% CI 與 p值
比如不使用泊松分佈而使用二項分佈或常態分佈
採用T test或採用Pearson's chi-squared test
或者不按公里計算event rate而按車次計算event rate
但我猜不管採用何種approach
都很難改變統計上有顯著差異的結論
--
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
'Cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser, And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."
now Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin' Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
--
Tags:
汽車
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