特斯拉發行15億美元公司債釋疑 - 汽車
By Zenobia
at 2017-08-08T17:24
at 2017-08-08T17:24
Table of Contents
如果你做出個超級熱門的產品, 訂單是你現在年產能的五倍, 但是你現在手上沒多少
現金, 請問你會怎麼辦?
(1) 找人借 (2) 找金主入股 (3) 把訂單轉包出去賺差價
特斯拉現在做的選項就是(1), 只不過並不是找銀行貸款而是發行債券. 這次發行的
債券非可轉換債, 也就是不包含(2)的性質, 不稀釋現有股權.
被稱為垃圾債是因為特斯拉的財務狀況並不算好, 債券等級考慮的是你的財務事實和
還款能力, 不像股票那麼重視發展性, 因為債券的報酬不像股票有大賺一倍的機會.
特斯拉的財務報表和法說會上週二才剛舉行, 文件和影音網路上都可以公開下載.
簡單對前面那篇新聞的推文, 分享幾項資訊:
(1) 特斯拉做車是賺錢的 (以下單位皆為 $B 十億美金)
今年第二季汽車營收 2.2B, 毛利 0.63B ([1] p.6) 近來毛利率差不多都是這樣
(2) 特斯拉入不敷出是因為資本支出
今年第二季CapEx 0.96B ([1] p.8)
(3) 特斯拉現金吃緊
約當現金約3.03B ([1] p.8), Elon Musk預估下半年CapEx 約2B. 所以大家都建議
特斯拉該籌資了. 問題只差怎麼籌. 債券(非可轉債)主要就是不想稀釋股權.
我想這和龐氏騙局的距離還很遠吧.
雖然版上很多人看到Scape 就吐槽, 但是很多事情還是不要流傳錯誤資訊比較好.
這幾年電動車一路突破了許多門檻這是事實. 電動車的訴求漸漸脫離政策與環保,
而力圖在可見的未來成為"更好的車".
首先, 電動車成為"更好"的性能車. 這使得電動車的價值不只是環保, 而是更即時
和平均的加速, 更低的重心等等性能表現. 這個已經發生了.
而特斯拉這次舉債要建Model 3的產能, 目標是成為"更好"的入門豪華車
(D-segment), 這個實現的機率有多大, 大家自己理智評估吧.
電動車成為"更好"的普通家用車, 距離我們很遠嗎? 我不認為. 2010年的時候車用
鋰電還要接近$1000/kWh, 去年不到$200. 也就是說Tesla Model 3 低規版的電池,
以前光成本就要五萬鎂, 現在成本不到一萬鎂. Panasonic, 做為Tesla的供應商,
獲利還上升了17%. 預估電池降到$100/kWh的時候, 即使政策不補助電動車, 即使
不計油價電價差距, 內燃機就不具有競爭力了. 這個價位的時間點有人估2030, 有
人估2025, 也有人估... 2021.
這讓我很想回上面新聞裡在吵太陽能的話題. 太陽能的成本這幾年暴降不下電池[2],
在德國LCOE成本大概只在煤電的1.2~2倍之間了. 我不敢說科技進展會到哪裡, 可是
你說他不可能, 就太武斷了.
[1] http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf
[2] "Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative",
The Economist. 21 November 2012.
[3] "Levelized cost of electricity renewable energy technologies",
Fraunhofer ISE. 2013
--
現金, 請問你會怎麼辦?
(1) 找人借 (2) 找金主入股 (3) 把訂單轉包出去賺差價
特斯拉現在做的選項就是(1), 只不過並不是找銀行貸款而是發行債券. 這次發行的
債券非可轉換債, 也就是不包含(2)的性質, 不稀釋現有股權.
被稱為垃圾債是因為特斯拉的財務狀況並不算好, 債券等級考慮的是你的財務事實和
還款能力, 不像股票那麼重視發展性, 因為債券的報酬不像股票有大賺一倍的機會.
特斯拉的財務報表和法說會上週二才剛舉行, 文件和影音網路上都可以公開下載.
簡單對前面那篇新聞的推文, 分享幾項資訊:
(1) 特斯拉做車是賺錢的 (以下單位皆為 $B 十億美金)
今年第二季汽車營收 2.2B, 毛利 0.63B ([1] p.6) 近來毛利率差不多都是這樣
(2) 特斯拉入不敷出是因為資本支出
今年第二季CapEx 0.96B ([1] p.8)
(3) 特斯拉現金吃緊
約當現金約3.03B ([1] p.8), Elon Musk預估下半年CapEx 約2B. 所以大家都建議
特斯拉該籌資了. 問題只差怎麼籌. 債券(非可轉債)主要就是不想稀釋股權.
我想這和龐氏騙局的距離還很遠吧.
雖然版上很多人看到Scape 就吐槽, 但是很多事情還是不要流傳錯誤資訊比較好.
這幾年電動車一路突破了許多門檻這是事實. 電動車的訴求漸漸脫離政策與環保,
而力圖在可見的未來成為"更好的車".
首先, 電動車成為"更好"的性能車. 這使得電動車的價值不只是環保, 而是更即時
和平均的加速, 更低的重心等等性能表現. 這個已經發生了.
而特斯拉這次舉債要建Model 3的產能, 目標是成為"更好"的入門豪華車
(D-segment), 這個實現的機率有多大, 大家自己理智評估吧.
電動車成為"更好"的普通家用車, 距離我們很遠嗎? 我不認為. 2010年的時候車用
鋰電還要接近$1000/kWh, 去年不到$200. 也就是說Tesla Model 3 低規版的電池,
以前光成本就要五萬鎂, 現在成本不到一萬鎂. Panasonic, 做為Tesla的供應商,
獲利還上升了17%. 預估電池降到$100/kWh的時候, 即使政策不補助電動車, 即使
不計油價電價差距, 內燃機就不具有競爭力了. 這個價位的時間點有人估2030, 有
人估2025, 也有人估... 2021.
這讓我很想回上面新聞裡在吵太陽能的話題. 太陽能的成本這幾年暴降不下電池[2],
在德國LCOE成本大概只在煤電的1.2~2倍之間了. 我不敢說科技進展會到哪裡, 可是
你說他不可能, 就太武斷了.
[1] http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-2Q.pdf
[2] "Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative",
The Economist. 21 November 2012.
[3] "Levelized cost of electricity renewable energy technologies",
Fraunhofer ISE. 2013
--
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