Loup Ventures：Model 3可以改變世界 - 汽車

最著名的Apple分析師之一，Gene Munster

最近他的公司Loup Ventures發表了一份報告，裡面寫著Model 3可以改變世界

Munster在這份報告中選擇了一款很令人驚訝的車來對比

不是Chevy Bolt，而是Toyota Camry



Toyota Camry在長達14年的時間裡，都是美國最暢銷的汽車

單看成本，Camry比Model 3便宜約42%

但若從車價、保險、燃料費、保養等各方面來看，5年持有成本價差約只有13%

http://i.imgur.com/8xCCBJq.png

Munster總結說，擁有一輛Model 3比起擁有一輛Toyota Camry五年只貴了約13%

這是不是意味著Tesla可以在大眾市場獲得成功？

根據研究工作顯示，Model 3可以將Tesla的潛在市場擴展到僅在北美就有每年1100萬輛

若是Model 3可以在2025年前佔據這個潛在市場的25%

那麼每年將會替Tesla帶來約1050億美元的收入



而在客戶體驗上與品牌忠誠度方面，消費者報告所做的調查也顯示Tesla勝出

有91%的車主表示他們絕對會再次購買Tesla的汽車

最接近的品牌是第二名Porsche的84%

http://i.imgur.com/okazTaC.jpg

而隨著Tesla車輛的上市，越來越多人意識到擁有一輛Tesla的好處

這種"看到就想要"類似病毒傳染般的現象

可能會加速Model 3的需求上升

加上自動駕駛技術的發展，極可能會使人們忽略掉那五年持有成本13%的差異

Munster預測，Model 3這種價值與技術的結合有可能改變世界

加速電動車與自動駕駛車的發展



另外他也把Apple跟Tesla做了一個類比

Apple曾經被視為一個奢侈品牌但現在卻享有在主流市場上巨大的成功

iPhone是將Apple推向主流大眾的一個手段

Munster也預測，未來我們最終會回顧Model 3的推出，並將其與iPhone比較

iPhone已經被證明是大眾轉向使用行動計算裝置的催化劑

回顧2007年，iPhone年產50萬部，但到了2015年，Apple賣了2.32億部iPhone...


==============================================================================

這種計算持有成本的方式很有趣，在汽車租賃盛行的美國可能也更流行

再加上有多份研究報告顯示大約在2025年電動車平均成本就會低於燃油車

想像一下，若是購車時電動車比燃油車便宜、後續保養、燃料費等也更便宜

那只要家裡充電不是問題，那大部分人都會選擇比較便宜的那一方才是

加上現在外面的充電站點也越來越多、充電速度越來越快

燃油車原有的優勢正在快速消失當中

==============================================================================
來源：
https://goo.gl/cHGNWM

UNIVERSAL APPEAL: COULD TESLA MODEL 3 BE AS BIG A MASS MARKET HIT AS THE
TOYOTA CAMRY?

Posted on July 08, 2017 by Matt Pressman

We recently profiled Gene Munster, one of the most revered Wall Street
analysts that covers Apple. Munster has a five star rating and ranks a
stellar 21 out of 4,592 analysts on Tip Ranks (99.5th percentile). He's
been showing up on the financial networks discussing his outlook for
another tech innovator, Tesla. His company, Loup Ventures*, argues that
the "Model 3 could change the world" in their most recent research
report. Munster chose a surprising car to stack up against the Model 3.
No, not the Chevy Bolt — the Toyota Camry.


For 14 years running, Toyota Camry has been America's best-selling car.
That said, Loup Ventures compared the Model 3's total cost of ownership
with "the Toyota Camry because it’s a good example of an affordable
quality car sold in the U.S. At first glance, Camry is in a different
segment than the Model 3, given that a Camry costs an average of 42% less
than an average Model 3 and Camry is an ICE (internal combustion engine).
However, looking at total cost of ownership, the price gap closes based
on savings from fuel, insurance maintenance, and repairs, ultimately
yielding a 13% price difference over 5 years."


The Model 3's lower cost of ownership could allow Tesla to tap into a
bigger market than ever before. Munster concludes, "Owning a Model 3 is
only 13% more expensive than owning a Toyota Camry over a 5 year
period.... [so] based on our cost of ownership work, we believe the Model
3 expands Tesla’s addressable market to about 11m vehicles per year in
North America alone." Could this mean mass market success for Tesla? "If
Tesla captures 25% of this 11 million vehicle addressable market by 2025,
Tesla would generate $105 billion in annual revenue from the Model 3."


With a smaller-than-expected price difference, which car is the better
value? "Tesla wins over a Camry when it comes to customer experience, due
to its acceleration, Autopilot, elimination of gas station stops, and the
high-quality entertainment system. There is evidence of this in a
Consumer Reports survey, where 91% of Tesla owners state they would
'definitely' buy their cars again, the highest rating of any automaker.
The next two closest automakers were Porsche at 84% and Audi at 77%."
Meanwhile, Toyota came in fifth place with 76%.


And don't forget the viral nature of Tesla ownership: "As more Teslas
find their way onto the road, the general public will become increasingly
aware of the benefits of Tesla ownership and likely view the 13% total
cost of ownership difference as insignificant. We expect this 'see it and
want it' phenomenon to cause an acceleration in Model 3 demand." This, in
turn, could open up the coveted Tesla brand to the masses. Munster
predicts, "the Model 3's value, in combination with its technology, has
the potential to change the world and accelerate the adoption of electric
and autonomous vehicles."


As Tesla's Autopilot is perfected, Big Auto will be left behind:
"Detroit, Japan, and German car manufacturer feature shortfalls will
compound around the end of 2020 when Tesla adds autonomy to approximately
2 million Teslas on the road virtually overnight... Note that every Tesla
sold today has the hardware for full autonomy. When Tesla turns on full
autonomy, we believe the market will tip away from traditional autos to
Tesla." A trip down memory lane might be in order — perhaps Apple vs.
Nokia could soon resemble Tesla vs. Toyota.


As before, Munster draws a corollary between Apple and Tesla. Apple, once
seen as a niche pricey brand, now enjoys massive mainstream success. The
iPhone was what pushed Apple out to a universal audience. And Munster
forecasts, "we will eventually look back at the launch of the Model 3 and
compare it to the iPhone, which proved to be the catalyst for the shift
to mobile computing... Looking back at the iPhone in 2007 it was a
stretch to envision the company producing 50m phones a year, but in 2015,
the company sold 232m units."

--