Tesla Model 3已在中小型豪華車銷售第一? - 特斯拉

原文連結：

https://goo.gl/nFQGcD

原文內容：

Tesla Model 3 — Already #1 In Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales? (USA)
Tesla Model 3 已經在(美國)中小型豪華車銷量排名第一了嗎？

At the beginning of the month, Tesla noted that it had gotten Model 3
production up to 2,000 cars a week at the end of March. More recently, Tesla
CEO Elon Musk told CBS that Tesla had produced 2,070 Model 3s in the week
leading up to April 10.

在本月初，Tesla 指出，它已經在三月底的時候將 Model 3 的週產量提高到2000輛。
最近，CEO Elon Musk 告訴CBS，Tesla 在截至4月10日的一周內生產了2,070輛 Model 3。

If you assume Tesla stalls at approximately 2,000 cars a week for the whole
month, that’s still over 8,000 Model 3 electric super-sedans produced in
April.

如果你認為 Tesla 在整個4月每周產量停留在2000輛，那4月仍會生產超過8000輛 Model 3

If you assume Tesla makes its way up to 2,500/week in the second half of the
month, that means over 9,000 Model 3s. If you get bullish and expect that
Tesla will jump to 3,000/week in that time period, we’re talking perhaps
10,000 Tesla Model 3s in April.

如果你認為 Tesla 在4月的下半月能夠達到2500輛/週，那意味著整個月超過9,000輛。
如果你看好 Tesla，並期望 Tesla 在這段時間內產能將跳到3000輛/週，
那麼我們說的是在4月份可能有10,000輛 Tesla Model 3。

Does that match Tesla’s target over the past 6 months for this time period?
No — as we all know all too well. But as Kurt Lowder noted recently, you can
’t really say Tesla’s late when it’s so far ahead of everyone else and is
moving as fast as it can. To quote Ashanti and Ja Rule, “I’m not always
there when you call, but I’m always on time.“

在過去六個月的這段時間，產能與 Tesla 目標相符嗎？ 不 - 我們都很清楚。
但正如 Kurt Lowder 最近指出的那樣，當 Tesla 已經遠遠領先於其他所有人，
並且正在盡可能快地行動時，你真的不能說特斯拉遲到了。

It’s somewhat interesting estimating Tesla Model 3 production/delivery
numbers, but more interesting is putting those numbers into context. One of
my favorite ways to do that is to compare to other cars in the Model 3’s
segment. That means the Audi A4/A5, BMW 2 Series/3 Series/4 Series, Jaguar
XE, Volvo S60, etc.

估計Model 3 的生產/交貨數量有點有趣，但更有趣的是將這些數字放入整個大局中來看。
我最喜歡的方式之一就是與 Model 3 的其他同級車進行比較。
這是指 Audi A4 / A5，BMW 2系列/3系列/4系列，Jaguar XE，Volvo S60等。

We can expect sales of these models to be fairly similar in April to what
they were in March, but I’ll round all their numbers up to give them the
benefit of the doubt. Just highlighting fairly popular models and their close
siblings, here’s what I get:

我們可以預計這些車款的銷量在四月份會與三月份的數據相當相似，
但我會將所有數字無條件進位，以便讓他們從中受益。

https://i.imgur.com/mguy0B3.png

As you can see, the Tesla Model 3 is now more or less at the top of the table
even if you add up the sales of somewhat similar models from each brand.

正如你所看到的，即使你將每個品牌的類似車款銷售合計在一起，
Model 3 差不多都在表格的最上方。

If you go a step further and expect that Tesla gets up to production of 5,000
Model 3s per week at some point in the coming quarter — and that US demand
holds steady around that number — then the Model 3 will absolutely crush the
competition in this class before the end of the year.

如果你更進一步，並預計 Tesla 將在下一季的某個時間點達成週產5000輛 Model 3，
並且美國的需求保持穩定 - 那麼在年底之前 Model 3 絕對會壓倒這個級別的競爭對手。

That said, as we’ve pointed out before, it may make more sense to pit the
Model 3 against leaders in the non-luxury midsize car segment. The Toyota
Camry sees approximately 35,000 sales a month, the Honda Accord and Nissan
Altima 24,000 each, the Ford Fusion 16,000, the Chevy Malibu 15,000, the
Hyundai Sonata 11,000, and the Kia Optima 8,000. The numbers those cars see
cover everything from the near-term estimate for the Model 3 (8,000–
10,000/month) to one of the most ambitious targets I’ve seen (40,000/month).

也就是說，正如我們之前指出的那樣，將 Model 3 與非豪華中型車的領導者進行對比
可能更有意義。Toyota Camry 每月銷售約35,000輛，Honda Accord 和 Nissan Altima
約24,000/月，Ford Fusion 16,000/月，Chevy Malibu 15,000/月，Hyundai Sonata
11,000/月，Kia Optima 8,000/月。
這些數字涵蓋了 Model 3 的近期預估產量(8k-10k/月)和最有野心的產能目標(40000/月)

Unless you’re really super, über, extremadamente pessimistic, though, it
looks like the Tesla Model 3 has already risen to the top of the small &
midsize luxury car category and may soon be targeting the podium of the
overall midsize car segment in the United States. Not too shabby for an “
impossible” car that “will never actually get produced.”

除非你真的超級，超級，極端悲觀，不然看起來 Model 3 已經上升到中小型豪華車類別
的頂端，並且可能很快將瞄準美國整個中型轎車領域的頒獎台。

心得/說明：

Model 3 的產能目標雖然一延再延，時間上晚了約6-9個月

但銷量目前看來在同級別還是無人能敵

不只是電動車，把同級豪華車拿進來比也是如此

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