電動車真的是未來趨勢? - Toyota

By Steve
at 2019-12-22T16:26
at 2019-12-22T16:26
Table of Contents
在這篇 - 以10年30萬公里試算Model 3跟油車價差
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1576942470.A.7B2.html
計算出油車、油電車與電動車在使用上的後續使用支出與價差
其實這張表格我自己算到後面發現延伸的話題
就是電動車取代燃油車要有什麼前提?
現在很多人都說以後電動車是趨勢,可是當我把表格貼出來的時候
https://imgur.com/Q49wjwj
卻變成"應該要用入門雙B來跟Model 3來比"
對!沒錯,價位上是這樣,200萬的Tesla應該要跟150萬以上的燃油車比
但既然價位上是這樣,那怎麼又會認為200萬的價位可以取代TOYOTA的銷售?????
我把上面的表格改成一般多數人使用的里程,也就是1年5000~10000公里,我抓10000km
https://imgur.com/iNjPI3m
可以看到後續使用價差大概是38萬左右,但這是電動車免稅的前提
如果要繳稅,10年下來可能是12萬。也就是說實際價差異可能會落在26~38萬
如果一般民眾考慮買一台汽頂神A,大概80萬,電動車要在104~118萬之間
就有可能打動他,but 現階段來說這要降價約莫40%,也就是6折
所以第一個前提就是,現在電動車太貴了
第二個前提,如果油價持續飆漲,表格如下,我抓37元一公升
https://imgur.com/TWXJUpX
可以看到後續使用價差大概是36~48萬左右,看起來是油價每漲12元,10年之後差10萬元
這時候電動車售價如果是116~128萬元,80萬預算的車主也許就會考慮轉換目標
Model 3 LR 降價幅度大概是3成左右,也就是7折
但即便油價已經很逆天的37元,電動車仍然要想辦法降價到128萬,所以他還是回到前提
一
但是這個表格裡面,最右邊的叫做油電混合車
以神A油電來說,售價約莫比純油版本多10萬元
神奇的是10年之後支出卻少了24萬,如果油價不幸攀升到37元支出再少5萬
最扯的是如果拿油電車跟電動車相比,10年支出只比電動車多14萬
而這14萬裡面有12萬來自於牌照與燃料稅!!!!
What the fuXk
意思是今天如果電動車要繳稅,那每年花費只比油電少2000元
但是車價價差超過100萬,所以保險肯定把剛剛的2000元吃回去
所以我認為電動車(非限定tesla)真正的對手不是純燃油車,而是油電混合車
https://i.imgur.com/sPcYH3K.jpg
而這張圖是我一直在板上貼的,現在越看好像越成真???
不過上面我講的是台灣的現況
國外我就沒深入研究,要看有沒有高手出來解釋
這中間我相信法規的影響比較大,比方說對岸現在對於豐田的油電混合並沒有列入獎勵
而加州可能對電動車有特別優惠之類的
至少在亞洲,10~20年內我會比較相信油電混合車會是大宗趨勢
ps: 我查米國
Accord Hybrid MSRP $25470
Clarity PHEV MSRP $33400
Model 3 SR+ MSRP $39990
Model 3 LR MSRP $48990
Tesla售價相對於雙逼來說比較貼近產地,算佛心
Accord PHEV如果在台灣是這價格我應該就不猶豫了
--
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/car/M.1576942470.A.7B2.html
計算出油車、油電車與電動車在使用上的後續使用支出與價差
其實這張表格我自己算到後面發現延伸的話題
就是電動車取代燃油車要有什麼前提?
現在很多人都說以後電動車是趨勢,可是當我把表格貼出來的時候
https://imgur.com/Q49wjwj
卻變成"應該要用入門雙B來跟Model 3來比"
對!沒錯,價位上是這樣,200萬的Tesla應該要跟150萬以上的燃油車比
但既然價位上是這樣,那怎麼又會認為200萬的價位可以取代TOYOTA的銷售?????
我把上面的表格改成一般多數人使用的里程,也就是1年5000~10000公里,我抓10000km
https://imgur.com/iNjPI3m
可以看到後續使用價差大概是38萬左右,但這是電動車免稅的前提
如果要繳稅,10年下來可能是12萬。也就是說實際價差異可能會落在26~38萬
如果一般民眾考慮買一台汽頂神A,大概80萬,電動車要在104~118萬之間
就有可能打動他,but 現階段來說這要降價約莫40%,也就是6折
所以第一個前提就是,現在電動車太貴了
第二個前提,如果油價持續飆漲,表格如下,我抓37元一公升
https://imgur.com/TWXJUpX
可以看到後續使用價差大概是36~48萬左右,看起來是油價每漲12元,10年之後差10萬元
這時候電動車售價如果是116~128萬元,80萬預算的車主也許就會考慮轉換目標
Model 3 LR 降價幅度大概是3成左右,也就是7折
但即便油價已經很逆天的37元,電動車仍然要想辦法降價到128萬,所以他還是回到前提
一
但是這個表格裡面,最右邊的叫做油電混合車
以神A油電來說,售價約莫比純油版本多10萬元
神奇的是10年之後支出卻少了24萬,如果油價不幸攀升到37元支出再少5萬
最扯的是如果拿油電車跟電動車相比,10年支出只比電動車多14萬
而這14萬裡面有12萬來自於牌照與燃料稅!!!!
What the fuXk
意思是今天如果電動車要繳稅,那每年花費只比油電少2000元
但是車價價差超過100萬,所以保險肯定把剛剛的2000元吃回去
所以我認為電動車(非限定tesla)真正的對手不是純燃油車,而是油電混合車
https://i.imgur.com/sPcYH3K.jpg
而這張圖是我一直在板上貼的,現在越看好像越成真???
不過上面我講的是台灣的現況
國外我就沒深入研究,要看有沒有高手出來解釋
這中間我相信法規的影響比較大,比方說對岸現在對於豐田的油電混合並沒有列入獎勵
而加州可能對電動車有特別優惠之類的
至少在亞洲,10~20年內我會比較相信油電混合車會是大宗趨勢
ps: 我查米國
Accord Hybrid MSRP $25470
Clarity PHEV MSRP $33400
Model 3 SR+ MSRP $39990
Model 3 LR MSRP $48990
Tesla售價相對於雙逼來說比較貼近產地,算佛心
Accord PHEV如果在台灣是這價格我應該就不猶豫了
--
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