Musk：Tesla的自駕技術"大幅"領先同業 - 特斯拉

原文連結：
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-teslas-self-driving-tech/

原文內容：

How does Tesla CEO Elon Musk compare his company's still-under-development
self-driving systems to the competition from Waymo, Cruise Automation and
the like? Easy. He believes his company his "vastly ahead of everyone."

到底 Elon Musk 本人如何看待自家發展中自駕系統對比上 Waymo,
Cruise Automation 以及其他同行孰優孰劣呢？
簡單！ 答案是 Musk 認為 Tesla 的自動駕駛技術正大幅領先群雄。


This quote comes from Musk's recent appearance on Lex Friedman's Artificial
Intelligence Podcast, where Musk spoke about topics ranging from how much
longer people will need to keep their hands on the wheel ("At least six
months from here") to what question would you ask of a truly sentient
artificial agent ("What's outside the simulation?").

這段論述出現自Musk本人最近上的一則播客節目中，節目中 Musk 從自動駕駛
何時普及("至少六個月後")，到 Musk 本人對於有情感的人工智慧想問什麼問題
都有談論。


(Youtube影片)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI


But the bulk of the conversation centered around Tesla's pursuit of
self-driving vehicles. Tesla has long offered a $5,000 "Full Self-Driving
Capability" package for its vehicles, promising access to an eventual
software update enabling the company's cars to drive themselves.

但大多數的對話皆圍繞在 Tesla 對於自動駕駛車輛的努力
Tesla 長久以來皆提供一項名為 "全自動駕駛能力" 的方案
花$5000就能買到"未來能夠獲得全自動駕駛能力"的願景


Musk reiterated this promise, saying: "The hardware currently being
produced is capable of full self-driving." However, autonomy won't be
an overnight thing where you drive yourself home from work one day and
the next morning, after a little OTA action, enjoy a fully automated
commute.

Musk重申這項承諾：「目前的硬體已經具備進行全自動駕駛所需的運算能力」
然而顯然地，全自駕並不是某天早上醒來，就像魔法一般突然擁有


"As we refine the software, the capabilities will increase
dramatically, and then the reliability will increase dramatically,
and then it will receive regulatory approval."

「當我們逐步妥善軟體，自動駕駛的能力會顯著的提升，可靠度亦然，
接下來將會受到法規的認可」


This, however, is where Musk's position took an interesting turn. Musk
believes autonomy will make a car significantly more valuable, perhaps
five times more than a normal, human-driven machine. His conclusion?
"If you buy a Tesla today I believe you are buying an appreciating asset,
not a depreciating asset."

這裡，Musk的論點似乎有了有趣的轉變，他相信自動駕駛將會使車輛更有價值，
或許會有非自駕車輛的五倍價值！ 而他的結論是，現在買特斯拉，不但不會折舊
還會開始增值XD


Outside of a rare few desirable collector machines and seemingly every
Porsche more than 20 years old, few cars actually do wind up appreciating
in value significantly. And, very few manufacturers would be bold enough
to make that a promise of their new cars.

但事實上，除了少數幾台車，還有每台年份20年以上的保時捷，還真的沒幾台車
會增值，而且也不太會有車商勇敢地給你這個承諾


But back to autonomy, when will the cars start driving themselves?
Musk believes you'll need to keep your hands on the wheel for "at least
six months from here," raising the question: "How much safer than a
person does Autopilot need to be before it's OK to not monitor the car?"

而回到自動駕駛本身，到底何時才能實現，Musk認為至少還需要六個月
這也帶出了另一個問題，到底Autopilot要比人類多安全多少，
才能放心的把車交給Autopilot?


Musk's basic thesis is that, once Autopilot is proven far safer
(perhaps by 200%, he notes), then letting a human take over actually
becomes risky behavior. He references the early days of elevators,
where a human pilot manually directed them to go up or down with a
lever. Now, Musk says, "Nobody wants an elevator operator, because
the automated elevator that stops at the floors is much safer."

Musk的基本論述是，當Autopilot比人類安全或許200%以上時，讓人類接手才是
危險的。他以早期電梯以人工操作為例，現在早就沒人想要電梯操作員，
因為電梯本身還更安全。


And what about the competition developing their own self-driving
technologies? "To me, right now this seems like game, set and match.
I don't want to be complacent or overconfident, but that is literally
how it appears right now. I could be wrong, but it appears to be the case
that Tesla is vastly ahead of everyone." With competitors like Waymo
racking up real-world miles for its self-driving systems, that's an
awfully confident statement to make. As ever, the proof will be in the
pudding.

「對我來說現在自動駕駛的競賽勝負已決，我不想太過自滿或是過分自信，
但現在看起來就是如此。我可能錯了，但現在看起來Tesla的確大幅領先了其他人。」

正當Waymo等其他同業持續累積自駕實地測試里程數時，這看起來似乎是個過分自信
的言論，不過，海水退潮了才會知道誰沒穿褲子。


心得/說明：(30字以上)

這兩天看到這則很狂的新聞，當很多評比報告都不認為Tesla
的自駕系統是最好的時候，鋼鐵人依然充滿自信。

我真的很喜歡那句話，海水退潮了，就知道誰沒穿褲子。

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