過度自動化生產 拖累Model 3產量和品質 - 汽車

Tesla Model 3的產量進度和組裝品質一直不如車廠預期，

去年Tesla原本計畫到了2017年底，每週要生產5000輛Model 3，

但是即使到了今天，每週也只有生產1214輛，進度大幅不如預期。

根據Bernstein Research的研究報告，這是因為Tesla過度追求機器人自動化生產所致

，讓Tesla Model 3的生產進度、成本和組裝品質都被過度自動化給嚴重拖累了。

Bernstein的報告認為Tesla的自動化生產線，野心太大、風險太高、太過複雜。

美國老牌汽車雜誌Car & Driver的試駕報導也說，Model 3的組裝品質不如預期。

"the questionable build quality we've learned to expect."


(圖) Tesla Model 3 每週生產量統計圖，這個星期已達生產1214輛。
https://i.imgur.com/QQMQrrG.jpg
(source: Bloomberg)


(圖14) 自動化程度與生產成本關係曲線圖
https://i.imgur.com/Nz8zUug.jpg


生產線上，使用人工與機械人自動化生產的各種不同比例，就會導致不同的生產成本。

圖中可以看到，

如果過度使用機器人，在超過最佳化的平衡點之後，汽車的生產成本反而會急劇升高，

車廠就要燒掉很多錢。


According to the Bernstein analysts Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi,
it's the robots that can't pump out Tesla's highly anticipated Model 3s
fast enough. The whole process is too ambitious, risky, and complicated.
......

分析師Max Warburton，他在進入華爾街金融界之前，

曾經在MIT的一個半學術、半商業的機構裡工作過，

他寫了一篇「自動化在最終組裝生產線並不可行」的報告。

這份Bernstein的報告還提到，

日本車廠會想去限縮自動化機器人的使用，

因為 1. 自動化的成本昂貴

2. 統計顯示，自動化程度跟生產品質高低成反比關係。

Warburton, who spent his career before Wall Street at the International
Motor Vehicle Program — a partly academic, partly commercial organization
based at MIT — wrote that "automation in final assembly doesn't work."

Bernstein adds that the world's best carmakers, the Japanese, try to
limit automation because it "is expensive and is statistically inversely
correlated to quality." Their approach is to get the process right first,
then bring in the robots — the opposite of Musk's.

====

以下是Bernstein Research研究報告，部份內容的簡譯

Tesla大量採購Kuka機器人，使用在自動化組裝生產線上，結果就遇到麻煩了。

而Tesla在自動化的焊接以及電池組生產過程也有類似的問題。

"It has ordered huge numbers of Kuka robots. It has not only automated
stamping, paint and welding (as most other OEMs do) — it has also tried
to automate final assembly (putting parts into the car). It talks of two-level
final lines with robots automating parts sequencing. This is where Tesla seems
to be facing problems (as well as in welding & battery pack assembly)."


從圖14可以看到，

在超過最佳的人工/機器的比例之後，過度去提高自動化反而會拉高整體成本。

自動化的問題在於成本貴、缺乏使用彈性和效率，還有(組裝)品質不佳。

Excessive automation actually raises costs beyond a point, as Exhibit 14,
from academics Gorlech and Wessel tries to explain. The problem is automation
is expensive — and usually proves far less effective, highly inflexible
and creates quality problems further down the line.


Tesla的生產太過自動化，又欠缺人工的幫忙輔助，這就造成前檔玻璃、引擎蓋、車門

...等等的組裝品質問題。

In welding, mistakes and inconsistencies go unrecognized — but the machine
powers on and builds cars with the wrong geometry or bad spot welds in key
locations. These are only found later — when for instance the windscreen
is inserted, or a door re-attached. Have you wondered why Tesla doors don't
align, or hoods don't fit, or windscreens are prone to cracking?
Now you have your answer.

In final assembly, robots can apply torque consistently — but they don't
detect and account for threads that aren't straight, bolts that don't quite
fit, fasteners that don't align or seals that have a defect. Humans are really
good at this. Have you wondered why Teslas have wind noise problems,
squeaks and rattles and bits of trim that fall off? Now you have your answer.


反觀Toyota的「精益生產」哲學，很重視人力的參與、人工檢查的價值、
人工和機器的平衡。

(註:精益(精實)生產 Lean Production 或稱豐田式生產 Toyota Production System)

他們會把權力放給生產線上的人、看重人的決策能力、人的創意。

結果就是機器人少一點、複雜的處理系統少一點、存放的車體零件少一點、
產線的排隊順序少一點，

成本開銷就會少一點，而生產力和品質還會更棒。

Anyone familiar with automobile assembly likely knows this.
It's common knowledge that Japanese OEMs are incredibly careful about
what they automate. The principles of lean production emphasize human
involvement and the value of human checks and balances.

Automation is, in many ways, contrary to the principles of lean production.
Lean production — or the Toyota Production System to be more specific
— focuses on human empowerment, human decision making and human ingenuity.
Lean factories typically have less automation not more. Fewer robots.
Fewer complicated handling systems. Fewer body stores. Fewer queues.
Less spending, And better productivity and quality.


(圖) 報告作者 Max Warburton之前曾在汽車產業研究機構工作過
https://images2.imgbox.com/63/64/odHsdroT_o.jpg

(圖) 報告作者 Toni Sacconaghi
https://images2.imgbox.com/92/29/CFYMnaoQ_o.jpg

◇◇◇◇

(圖) Tesla股東投票通知書
https://i.imgur.com/qviRzIl.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/33/aa/nAWOTdEa_o.jpg

https://images2.imgbox.com/27/3c/MEYLWzuJ_o.jpg


==心得==

就產品本身而言，Model 3是物有所值的好車，也是Tesla成長茁壯的重要關鍵，

對於一個好產品，最重要的是要趕上生產進度，顧好生產品質。

跟眾籌集資不同的是，一家有良心的股票上市公司應該要以股東的權益為首要考量，

生產Model 3的過程也要穩紮穩打，先追求產量和品質，爾後再講求高科技生產自動化

，不該拿小股東辛苦的投資錢開玩笑。


出處
機器人正在殺死Tesla
The robots are killing Tesla
https://is.gd/zzq7kq

Tesla's Model 3 problems reveal a hidden cost in electric cars
https://is.gd/JuX2rm

Model 3 的電池組的生產自動化程度遠比Model S高。

Battery production for the mass-market Model 3 will be far more automated
than it has been for Tesla's previous vehicles, the Model S and the Model X.

[金融時報] 馬斯克26億美元薪酬方案遭股東服務集團反對
https://is.gd/6zLEZe

為股東提供諮詢服務的機構股東服務集團(Institutional Shareholder Services)
全力反對Elon Musk創紀錄的26億美元薪酬方案。

兩周後，特斯拉的股東們將就該方案投票表決。

--